Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova, WTA Tennis
Tokyo (WTA 500), round of 16, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Pohankova to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model69.5¢ OsakaPohankova 30.5¢
Best price79¢ PolymarketKalshi 21¢
Track who winsOsaka 79¢Pohankova 21¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Pohankova to win
+9.5 pts
We give Pohankova a 30% chance to win.
Our model 30.5¢Best price 21¢ at Kalshi
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
The model gives Pohankova 9.5 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pohankova to win | 30.5¢ | 21¢ | +9.5 pts |
| Osaka to win | 69.5¢ | 79¢ | −9.5 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Osaka to win | Pohankova to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||