Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart, WTA Tennis
Guangzhou (WTA 250), quarterfinals, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Dart to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model64.8¢ BadosaDart 35.3¢
Best price75¢ KalshiPolymarket 26¢
Track who winsBadosa 75¢Dart 26¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Dart to win
+9.3 pts
We give Dart a 35% chance to win.
Our model 35.3¢Best price 26¢ at Polymarket
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Get Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUP
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Badosa 10.3 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dart to win | 35.3¢ | 26¢ | +9.3 pts |
| Badosa to win | 64.8¢ | 75¢ | −10.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Badosa to win | Dart to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||