Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich, WTA Tennis
Hong Kong (WTA 250), round of 16, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Gibson to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model47.5¢ GibsonSasnovich 52.5¢
Best price41.7¢ FanDuelKalshi 59¢
Track who winsGibson 41.7¢Sasnovich 59¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesGibson to win
+5.8 pts
We give Gibson a 47% chance to win.
Our model 47.5¢Best price 41.7¢ at FanDuel
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives Sasnovich 6.5 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sasnovich to win | 52.5¢ | 59¢ | −6.5 pts |
| Gibson to win | 47.5¢ | 41.7¢ | +5.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Gibson to win | Sasnovich to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||