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Alex Ovechkin

NHL · Washington Capitals · L

Everything we track on Alex Ovechkin: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

Next game

vs SEA · Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM ET

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Props

Sportsbook prices

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

Best sportsbook price per side and our model's numbers
Prop	Over	Under	Our chance of over	Projected	Edge
Assists 0.5Lineup NHL player modelExperimental	34.5¢DraftKings	68.8¢BetMGM	29%	0.3	Under +2.5 pts
Points 0.5Lineup NHL player modelExperimental	54.6¢DraftKings	48.8¢BetMGM	50%	0.7	Under +1.0 pts
Power-play points 0.5Lineup NHL player modelExperimental	31.3¢BetMGM	76.5¢BetMGM	14%	0.1	Under +9.7 pts
Shots on goal 2.5Lineup NHL player modelExperimental	55.6¢BetMGM	51.2¢DraftKings	52%	2.8	Under −3.2 pts

How our models have done on Alex Ovechkin

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	28%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	33%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	27%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	32%	0.4	1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	29%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1.5	7%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	29%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	34%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	49%	0.7	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	57%	0.8	0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	48%	0.7	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	55%	0.8	1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	18%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	21%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	17%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	20%	0.2	0	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	21%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	25%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	20%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	24%	0.3	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	21%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	25%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	20%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	24%	0.3	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	2.5	46%	2.5	2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	2.5	53%	2.8	2	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	2.5	54%	2.9	0	Lost
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	3	56%	3.0	1	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	55%	0.8	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	60%	0.9	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	60%	0.9	0	Lost
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	61%	1.0	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	58%	0.9	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	62%	1.0	0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	62%	1.0	0	Lost
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	64%	1.0	0	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	54%	0.8	0	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	58%	0.9	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	59%	0.9	0	Lost
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	60%	0.9	0	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	29%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	35%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	29%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	34%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	9%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	12%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	9%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	11%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	11%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	13%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	11%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	13%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	12%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	14%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	11%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	14%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	1%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	1%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	1%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	1%	0.0	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	5%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	5%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	5%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	5%	0.0	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	5%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	5%	0.0	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	5%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	5%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	5%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	5%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	5%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	5%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Power-play points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Power-play points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	14%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	14%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	16%	0.2	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 3

Recent games

Last 4 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 9, 2026 vs NYR	0	0	0	2	2
Oct 7, 2026 vs PIT	0	0	0	2	1
Oct 3, 2026 at TBL	0	0	0	0	3
Oct 2, 2026 at CAR	0	1	1	1	1
Season average (4 games)	0	0.3	0.3	1.3	1.8