Skip to content
The Lineup
Offers

MLB predictions for Wednesday, September 30, 2026

How the model did

  • Our model's favourite won 3 of 4 games.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 4 of 4.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the Houston Astros 58% and they lost.
  • Best call: the Chicago White Sox won at 42¢, with our model at 42%.
Philadelphia Phillies logoPhiladelphia Phillies logoPhiladelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves logoAtlanta Braves logoAtlanta Braves
FinalPHI 4, ATL 3

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • PHIModel 51%Kalshi 52¢ (Opening price)−0.7 pts model vs market
  • ATLModel 49%Kalshi 49¢ (Last price before the start)−0.3 pts model vs market
Game page
Chicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox logoChicago White SoxHouston Astros logoHouston Astros logoHouston Astros
FinalCHW 7, HOU 3

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CHWModel 42%Kalshi 42¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market
  • HOUModel 58%Kalshi 59¢ (Last price before the start)−1.2 pts model vs market
Game page
Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox logoBoston Red SoxNew York Yankees logoNew York Yankees logoNew York Yankees
FinalBOS 2, NYY 9

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • BOSModel 45%Kalshi 45¢ (Last price before the start)−0.3 pts model vs market
  • NYYModel 55%Kalshi 56¢ (Last price before the start)−0.7 pts model vs market
Game page
Chicago Cubs logoChicago Cubs logoChicago CubsSan Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres
FinalCHC 1, SD 4

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CHCModel 43%Kalshi 44¢ (Last price before the start)−1.1 pts model vs market
  • SDModel 57%Kalshi 57¢ (Last price before the start)+0.1 pts model vs market
Game page
Trade on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.