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MLB predictions for Wednesday, October 7, 2026

How the model did

  • Our model's favourite won 1 of 4 games.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 0 of 4.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the New York Yankees 61% and they lost.
Cleveland Guardians logoCleveland Guardians logoCleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox
FinalCLE 9, CHW 3

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CLEModel 46%Kalshi 47¢ (Last price before the start)−0.8 pts model vs market
  • CHWModel 54%Kalshi 54¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market
Game page
Los Angeles Dodgers logoLos Angeles Dodgers logoLos Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves logoAtlanta Braves logoAtlanta Braves
FinalLAD 4, ATL 1

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • LADModel 58%Kalshi 58¢ (Last price before the start)−0.4 pts model vs market
  • ATLModel 42%Kalshi 43¢ (Last price before the start)−0.6 pts model vs market
Game page
Tampa Bay Rays logoTampa Bay Rays logoTampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees logoNew York Yankees logoNew York Yankees
FinalTB 4, NYY 3

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • TBModel 39%Kalshi 40¢ (Last price before the start)−1.0 pts model vs market
  • NYYModel 61%Kalshi 61¢ (Last price before the start)0.0 pts model vs market
Game page
Milwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres
FinalMIL 3, SD 1

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • MILModel 50%Kalshi 51¢ (Last price before the start)−1.3 pts model vs market
  • SDModel 50%Kalshi 50¢ (Last price before the start)+0.3 pts model vs market
Game page
Trade on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.