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MLB predictions for Thursday, October 15, 2026

How the model did

  • Our model's favourite won 1 of 2 games.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 1 of 2.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the Los Angeles Dodgers 58% and they lost.
Tampa Bay Rays logoTampa Bay Rays logoTampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians logoCleveland Guardians logoCleveland Guardians
FinalTB 2, CLE 3

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • TBModel 46%Kalshi 47¢ (Opening price)−0.7 pts model vs market
  • CLEModel 54%Kalshi 54¢ (Last price before the start)−0.3 pts model vs market
Game page
Milwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers logoLos Angeles Dodgers logoLos Angeles Dodgers
FinalMIL 6, LAD 4

Lineup MLB runs model (Experimental), as of the start

  • MILModel 42%Kalshi 43¢ (Opening price)−1.4 pts model vs market
  • LADModel 58%Kalshi 59¢ (Last price before the start)−0.6 pts model vs market
Game page
Trade on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.