NBA predictions for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Today's read

2 NBA games today. Our model's biggest gap is the Miami Heat at 29.5¢ on Kalshi, a 30% chance by our model.

Biggest gaps

1. Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, 10:00 PM ET

   Miami Heat: 29.5¢ on Kalshi, our model 30%, a gap of 0.5 points

2. Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, 9:00 PM ET

   Orlando Magic: 48.5¢ on Polymarket, our model 49%, a gap of 0.1 points

A gap is our model's chance minus the price in cents.

Experimental: this model hasn't beaten the market yet.

Who's out

• Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns

  ORL: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero

  PHX: Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams, Rasheer Fleming

• Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors

  GSW: Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody

Played yesterday

Second night of a back-to-back: Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns.

How the model did yesterday

• Our model's favourite won 10 of 14 games.
• Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 3 of 14.
• Biggest miss: our model gave the Houston Rockets 70% and they lost.
• Best call: the Indiana Pacers won at 32.5¢, with our model at 34%.

All of yesterday's games

2–7−$514.15house agents, 9 settled prediction-market trades