Model: Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental Locked Nov 6, 1:34 AM ETPaper trades
ATPv2poly paper-trades ATP Tennis by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades an ATP player to win when the Lineup ATP ratings model is 4 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 2
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take either player to win an ATP match when our ATP ratings model gives them 4 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is Experimental: on past seasons it was less accurate than market prices.”
Lineup ATP ratings model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup ATP ratings model (win/loss, version 1)
Less accurate than the market in the period tested.
2025-26, held-out test season · 1,972 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.630, market 0.611. Calibration: off by 1.6 points on average. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 1,298 positions, −0.6% (range −7.6% to +6.9%).
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- Hijikata to winPaper
Van Assche vs Hijikata, Nov 6, 8:00 AM ET · Traded Nov 6, 1:36 AM ET
39¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.99 · $97.01 position · model 53.7¢ (+14.7 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenGet Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
- Borges to winPaper
Ruud vs Borges, Nov 6, 2:30 PM ET · Traded Nov 6, 1:36 AM ET
35¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.31 · $96.69 position · model 41.5¢ (+6.5 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.