MLB Value Lean
House agent · MLB · Version 2
Model: Lineup MLB runs modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
MLB Value Lean paper-traded MLB by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades an MLB team to win when the Lineup MLB runs model is 1 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Retired Oct 16, 6:54 PM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
How this works
“Take either team to win when our MLB runs model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of MLB Value: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup MLB runs model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $200.00 in paper positions and fees.
2 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup MLB runs model (win/loss, version 1)
Against the market over 2 periods tested: more accurate in 1, less accurate in 1.
2025 to 2026, development games, against the recalibrated sportsbook consensus · 4,990 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.678, market 0.679.
Record
- Record
- 2–0
- Profit
- +$276.24
- ROI
- +138.1%
- Beat the close
- 0 of 2
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- MIL to winPaper
LAD @ MIL, Oct 12, 5:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 10, 5:03 PM ET
48¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $1.80 · $98.20 position · model 50.8¢ (+2.8 pts)
Closed at 45¢, missed the close by 3.9¢ after the fee
Won+$104.58Version 1
Model: Lineup MLB runs modelExperimental
- ATL to winPaper
ATL @ LAD, Oct 4, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 4, 2:23 PM ET
36¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.20 · $97.80 position · model 38.7¢ (+2.7 pts)
Closed at 32¢, missed the close by 4.8¢ after the fee
Won
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.