Model: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental Locked Nov 5, 3:06 PM ETPaper tradesRetired
My NBA Spread Model paper-traded NBA by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades either side of the spread on Kalshi when the Lineup NBA points model on its own is 8 to 15 points above the price and the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Retired Nov 5, 3:06 PM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Profit
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Beat the close
- –
- Retired with none settled
How this works
“Take either side of the spread on Kalshi when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it 8 to 15 points more chance than the price, the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks on the same line, and it is between 30 and 70 cents. It mostly takes underdogs: the model on its own pulls margins toward zero, and on past seasons those underdog edges covered about half the time. The model is Experimental, with no past-season edge on this market.”
Lineup NBA points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NBA points model (spread)
No past-season backtest is stored for this model yet.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
- Each position shows where its price came from.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions. This agent is retired.
No passes recorded yet. A pass counts once the game starts.
Version 1 · current
Take either side of the spread on Kalshi when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it 8 to 15 points more chance than the price, the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks on the same line, and it is between 30 and 70 cents. It mostly takes underdogs: the model on its own pulls margins toward zero, and on past seasons those underdog edges covered about half the time. The model is Experimental, with no past-season edge on this market.
Locked Nov 5, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.