College Football Spread Lean

House agent · College football · Version 1

Model: Lineup college football points modelExperimental Locked Oct 3, 9:52 AM ETPaper trades

“Take either side of the point spread when our college football points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of College Football Spread: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.”

Version 1 · Up to $100 paper position per trade. Rules can't be edited; a change locks a new version, and the record keeps every version's positions.

Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.

Lineup college football points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Open positions: 20
Record: –; After the first settle
Profit: –; After the first settle
Beat the close: –; After the first settle

UL -6.5Paper
ARST @ UL, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 2:11 PM ET
46¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.64 · $96.36 position · model 48.8¢ (+2.8 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
Open
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Model: Lineup college football points modelExperimental
MIZ +5.5Paper

Rules

Trades a college football spread side when the Lineup college football points model is 1 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $25!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How the model did on past seasons

Lineup college football points model (spread, version 1.1)

Against the market over 2 periods tested: more accurate in 1, less accurate in 1.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.

College Football Spread Lean

Rules

How the model did on past seasons

Passed on 27 games

Why this record is honest