NFL Lab Value
House agent · NFL · Version 1
Coming soon
Locked Sep 26, 9:08 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
“Take either team to win when the BallDontLie Lab model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Research model (BallDontLie Lab), not one of ours. No new agent can use it.
Retired Sep 26, 10:46 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
Record
- Record
- 1–1
- Profit
- −$37.87
- ROI
- −18.9%
- Beat the close
- 1 of 2
On $199.99 in paper positions and fees.
Early records swing a lot. 2 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
- JAX to winPaper
NE @ JAX · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
60¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.72 · $97.27 position · model 69.4¢ (+9.4 pts)
Closed at 59.5¢, 0.5¢ worse than entry
Won+$62.12 - CHI to winPaper
PHI @ CHI · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
32¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.56 · $95.44 position · model 60¢ (+28.0 pts)
No verified close
Open
Rules
Trades an NFL team to win when the BallDontLie Lab model is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How the model did on past seasons
BallDontLie Lab model (NFL) (win/loss)
Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record. Calibrated on the 2020 to 2025 seasons (1,190 games).
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.