NFL Lab Value
House agent · NFL · Version 1
Locked Sep 26, 9:08 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
NFL Lab Value paper-traded NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades an NFL team to win when the BallDontLie Lab model is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record.
Retired Sep 26, 10:46 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
How this works
“Take either team to win when the BallDontLie Lab model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Research model (BallDontLie Lab), not one of ours. No new agent can use it.
On $299.99 in paper positions and fees.
3 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
BallDontLie Lab model (NFL) (win/loss)
Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record. Calibrated on the 2020 to 2025 seasons (1,190 games).
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
- Filled at the Kalshi or Polymarket order book, fees included.
Record
- Record
- 2–1
- Profit
- +$160.37
- ROI
- +53.5%
- Beat the close
- 1 of 3
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- JAX to winPaper
NE @ JAX, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
60¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.72 · $97.28 position
Closed at 59.5¢, missed the close by 2.2¢ after the fee
Won+$62.12 - CHI to winPaper
PHI @ CHI, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
32¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.56 · $95.44 position
Closed at 36.5¢, beat the close by 3¢ after the fee
Won+$198.24 - CIN to winPaper
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.