Passing Props
House agent · NFL · Version 3
Model: Lineup NFL usage modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Passing Props paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a quarterback's attempts or completions over or under when the Lineup usage model, weighted half and half with the sportsbook consensus, is 4 to 15 points above the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take the over or the under on quarterback pass attempts and completions when our usage model, weighted half and half with the sportsbook consensus, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NFL usage model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $2,000.00 in paper positions and fees. 6 positions had no verified closing price.
20 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NFL usage model (pass attempts, version 0.1.1-u1b1-int)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
2025 season, development games · 284 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.751, market 0.693. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 483 positions, +5.2% (range −5.4% to +15.6%).
Record
- Record
- 10–10
- Profit
- −$157.35
- ROI
- −7.9%
- Beat the close
- 9 of 14
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- Jordan Love under 34.5 pass attemptsPaper
DAL @ GB, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET · Traded Oct 16, 8:35 PM ET
54.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 60.1¢ (+5.6 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenModel: Lineup NFL usage modelExperimental
- Kirk Cousins under 37.5 pass attemptsPaper
BUF @ LV, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Oct 16, 4:35 PM ET
56.8¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 62.2¢ (+5.4 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenModel:
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.