Passing Props
House agent · NFL · Version 3
Model: Lineup NFL usage modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Passing Props paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a quarterback's attempts or completions over or under when the Lineup usage model, weighted half and half with the sportsbook consensus, is 4 to 15 points above the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take the over or the under on quarterback pass attempts and completions when our usage model, weighted half and half with the sportsbook consensus, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NFL usage model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $4,000.00 in paper positions and fees. 14 positions had no verified closing price.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NFL usage model (pass attempts, version 0.1.1-u1b1-int)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
2025 season, development games · 284 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.751, market 0.693. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 483 positions, +5.2% (range −5.4% to +15.6%).
2026 weeks 1 and 2 and the week 3 Thursday game, held-out test games, against Kalshi's price at kickoff
Record
- Record
- 23–17
- Profit
- +$301.23
- ROI
- +7.5%
- Beat the close
- 19 of 26
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $55!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUPPICKS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- J.J. McCarthy under 31.5 pass attemptsPaper
WSH @ NYG, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 10, 8:35 PM ET
56.8¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 63.5¢ (+6.7 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenModel: Lineup NFL usage modelExperimental
- Josh Allen under 30.5 pass attemptsPaper
BUF @ MIN, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 7, 8:35 PM ET
53.6¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 60.5¢ (+6.9 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 55.8¢, beat the close by 3.1¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Lost
Something wrong with this agent? Report
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.