House agent · NFL · Version 4
Receiving Props paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a receiving line over or under when the Lineup usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4 to 15 points above the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
“Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices in the last 6 hours before kickoff, so it trades then. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $4,800.00 in paper positions and fees. 2 positions had no verified closing price.
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (receptions, learning setup L2)
Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.
Dec 21, 2025 to Jan 25, 2026, development games, in the last hours before the start · 38 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.675, market 0.681. Calibration: off by 8.4 points on average.

Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $55!
Use code LINEUPPICKS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
WSH @ NYG, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET
59.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 63.6¢ (+4.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
BUF @ MIN, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 9, 7:31 PM ET
39.9¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 44.3¢ (+4.3 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 38.2¢; a void is left out of beat the close
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (receiving yards, learning setup L2)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Dec 21, 2025 to Jan 25, 2026, development games, in the last hours before the start · 39 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.691, market 0.691. Calibration: off by 6.7 points on average.
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (rushing and receiving yards, learning setup L2)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Jan 3, 2026 to Jan 25, 2026, development games, in the last hours before the start · 21 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.692, market 0.692. Calibration: off by 5.9 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
TB @ CHI, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET · Traded Nov 8, 6:05 PM ET
51¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 55.1¢ (+4.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 52.6¢, beat the close by 2.6¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
HOU @ LAC, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET · Traded Nov 8, 3:31 PM ET
59.9¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 64.5¢ (+4.7 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 58.9¢; a void is left out of beat the close
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
DAL @ IND, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Nov 8, 12:01 PM ET
57.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 63.2¢ (+5.7 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 56.5¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
JAX @ BAL, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 5, 5:15 PM ET
49.5¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 54.8¢ (+5.2 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 48.5¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
CHI @ SEA, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Nov 2, 3:05 PM ET
58.8¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 64.3¢ (+5.4 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 59.8¢; a void is left out of beat the close
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
LAC @ LAR, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET · Traded Nov 1, 3:31 PM ET
46.5¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 54.5¢ (+8.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 45.5¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
KC @ DEN, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Nov 1, 3:31 PM ET
60.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 67.6¢ (+7.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 59.5¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
ARI @ DAL, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Nov 1, 9:00 AM ET
67.4¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 72.9¢ (+5.5 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 67.7¢, beat the close by 1.3¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
CAR @ GB, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Oct 29, 4:05 PM ET
52.2¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 59.6¢ (+7.4 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 55.6¢, beat the close by 4.3¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
DAL @ PHI, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Oct 26, 5:15 PM ET
59.3¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 67.2¢ (+7.9 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 58.3¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
KC @ SEA, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 7:05 PM ET
50¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 54.4¢ (+4.3 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 50¢, beat the close by 1¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
GB @ DET, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 3:31 PM ET
53.6¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 63¢ (+9.4 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 54.1¢, beat the close by 1.5¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
DEN @ ARI, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 3:31 PM ET
50.5¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 55.4¢ (+4.9 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 49.5¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
CLE @ TEN, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 12:31 PM ET
53.6¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 58.3¢ (+4.7 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 52.6¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
TB @ CAR, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 12:31 PM ET
44.5¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 50.6¢ (+6.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 51.2¢, beat the close by 7.7¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
NYG @ HOU, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 12:21 PM ET
37.4¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 43¢ (+5.6 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 37.2¢, beat the close by 0.8¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
IND @ MIN, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 11:01 AM ET
38.9¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 43.7¢ (+4.8 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 37.9¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
MIA @ NYJ, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 25, 9:05 AM ET
55.6¢ · Sportsbook price (Fanatics) · model 60.2¢ (+4.6 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 51.2¢, missed the close by 3.3¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
WSH @ SF, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Oct 19, 4:25 PM ET
56.6¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 60.9¢ (+4.3 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 56.7¢, beat the close by 1.1¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
LAC @ KC, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Oct 18, 3:31 PM ET
61.8¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 71.9¢ (+10.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 60¢, missed the close by 0.8¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
BUF @ LV, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Oct 18, 3:06 PM ET
57.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 63.1¢ (+5.6 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 55.4¢, missed the close by 1.2¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
ARI @ LAR, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET · Traded Oct 18, 1:05 PM ET
52.5¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 58.8¢ (+6.4 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 52.4¢, beat the close by 0.9¢ on the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
NO @ NYG, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 18, 12:41 PM ET
47.1¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 51.4¢ (+4.3 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 46.1¢, the same as the book's price (the entry adds 1¢)
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
| Model | Positions | Won-lost-void | Open | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L2 | 40 | 19–17–3 | 1 | +$126.58 |
| Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L1 | 10 | 6–4 | 0 | +$121.27 |
| Lineup NFL usage model 0.1.1-u1b1-int | 1 | 0–1 | 0 | −$100.00 |
| Lineup NFL usage model 0.2.0-avail | 1 | 1–0 | 0 | +$119.11 |
Version 4 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices in the last 6 hours before kickoff, so it trades then. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 31 positions · 15–12–3 · 1 open · +$281.28
Version 3
Reads the learning model, weighted against market prices nightly (D-117).
Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices in the last 6 hours before kickoff, so it trades then. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.
Locked Sep 30, 2026 · 19 positions · 10–9 · 0 open · −$33.43
Version 2
Blends the usage model half and half with the sportsbook consensus (D-107).
Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model, weighted half and half with the sportsbook consensus, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.
Locked Sep 29, 2026 · 1 position · 1–0 · 0 open · +$119.11
Version 1
Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts.
Locked Sep 28, 2026 · 1 position · 0–1 · 0 open · −$100.00
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.