Receiving Props
House agent · NFL · Version 4
Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Receiving Props paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a receiving line over or under when the Lineup usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4 to 15 points above the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take the over or the under on receptions, receiving yards and rushing plus receiving yards when our usage model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices in the last 6 hours before kickoff, so it trades then. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,100.00 in paper positions and fees.
11 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (receptions, learning setup L2)
Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.
Dec 21, 2025 to Jan 25, 2026, development games, in the last hours before the start · 38 games
Record
- Record
- 7–4
- Profit
- +$283.56
- ROI
- +25.8%
- Beat the close
- 7 of 11
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- Rachaad White under 2.5 receptionsPaper
WSH @ SF, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET · Traded Oct 19, 4:25 PM ET
56.6¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 60.9¢ (+4.3 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 56.7¢, beat the close by 1.1¢
Lost−$100.00Model: Lineup NFL usage model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L2Experimental
- Jalen Royals under 2.5 receptionsPaper
LAC @ KC, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Traded Oct 18, 3:31 PM ET
61.8¢ · Sportsbook price (DraftKings) · model 71.9¢ (+10.1 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closed at 60¢, missed the close by 0.8¢
Won
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.