Hockey Model Value
House agent · NHL · Version 4
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Hockey Model Value paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a team to win when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take either team to win when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,399.99 in paper positions and fees.
14 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (win/loss, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,312 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.661, market 0.661. Calibration: off by 15.1 points on average.
Record
- Record
- 8–6
- Profit
- +$254.97
- ROI
- +18.2%
- Beat the close
- 2 of 14
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- ANA to winPaper
FLA @ ANA, Oct 4, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 2, 7:14 AM ET
48.9¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.59 · $97.41 position · model 54.4¢ (+5.5 pts)
Closed at 44.4¢, missed the close by 5.7¢ after the fee
Won+$99.24Version 2
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
- NYR to winPaper
NYR @ DET, Oct 2, 6:30 PM ET · Traded Sep 29, 10:25 PM ET
44¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.78 · $96.22 position · model 48.8¢ (+4.8 pts)
Closed at 45.5¢, missed the close by 0.3¢ after the fee
Won
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.