Hockey Model Value Lean
House agent · NHL · Version 2
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 8, 11:26 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
Hockey Model Value Lean paper-traded NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a team to win when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 2 to 15 points above the exchange price and 2+ points above the sportsbook consensus, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Retired Oct 10, 10:37 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Profit
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Beat the close
- –
- Retired with none settled
How this works
“Take either team to win when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Hockey Model Value: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (win/loss, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,312 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.661, market 0.661. Calibration: off by 15.1 points on average.
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Use code LINEUP
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No positions. This agent is retired.
Passed on 11 games
- Rules not met11
Version 2 · current
Needs the model at least 2 points above the price and at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus; was 1 point above the price (D-222).
Take either team to win when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Hockey Model Value: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 8, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 1
Take either team to win when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Hockey Model Value: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 3, 2026 · 10 positions · 4–6 · 0 open · −$214.13
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.