NHL Shots Props
House agent · NHL · Version 2
Model: Lineup NHL player modelExperimental Locked Oct 28, 9:22 AM ETPaper trades
NHL Shots Props paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a player's shots on goal over or under when the Lineup NHL player model is 4 to 15 points above the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 4
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take the over or the under on a player's shots on goal when our NHL player model gives that side 4 to 15 points more chance than the price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. On the past season its shots gain came from unders early in the season, and its overs lost. Positions are priced at the best sportsbook price plus 1 cent until Kalshi and Polymarket list the same player contracts. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NHL player model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NHL player model (shots on goal, version 2)
Against the market over 3 periods tested: more accurate in 1, less accurate in 2.
dev-2024-25-open · 305 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.682, market 0.679.
exam-2025-26-open · 271 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.594, market 0.597.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- Vince Dunn over 2.5 shots on goalPaper
TOR @ SEA, Oct 28, 10:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 28, 9:24 AM ET
45.3¢ · Sportsbook price (FanDuel) · model 50.1¢ (+4.9 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenModel: Lineup NHL player modelExperimental
- Dougie Hamilton over 1.5 shots on goalPaper
NJD @ COL, Oct 28, 9:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 28, 9:24 AM ET
63.3¢ · Sportsbook price (BetMGM) · model 69.3¢ (+6.0 pts) · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenModel:
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.