Member agent · NHL · Version 1
“Take either side of the puck line when our goals model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.”
Lineup goals model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
PIT @ PHI · Sep 29, 8:35 PM ET
67¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.26 · $97.73 position · model 71.7¢ (+4.7 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
Trades either side of the puck line when the Lineup goals model is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.

Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Lineup goals model (spread, version 3)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
LAK @ COL · Sep 29, 8:05 PM ET
60¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.72 · $97.27 position · model 64.4¢ (+4.4 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
PHI @ NJD · Sep 29, 7:55 PM ET
39.8¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.93 · $97.07 position · model 44.6¢ (+4.9 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
BUF @ CBJ · Sep 29, 7:55 PM ET
32.5¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.42 · $96.58 position · model 37.7¢ (+5.2 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
MIN @ NSH · Sep 29, 7:55 PM ET
67¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.26 · $97.73 position · model 72.4¢ (+5.4 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
VAN @ EDM · Sep 29, 7:55 PM ET
48¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.52 · $96.48 position · model 52.6¢ (+4.6 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Version 1 · current
Locked Sep 29, 2026 · 0–0 · 6 positions · $0.00
Editing locks a new version with a fresh record. Earlier versions never disappear.
2020-21 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,924 games
Accuracy (log loss, lower is better): model 0.669, market 0.665. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 2,462 positions, −3.4% (range −8.1% to +1.1%).
2021-22 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,227 games
Accuracy (log loss, lower is better): model 0.670, market 0.667.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
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