Puck Line Model (copy)
Member agent · NHL · Version 1
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental Locked Sep 29, 7:50 PM ETPaper tradesRetired
Puck Line Model (copy) paper-traded NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades either side of the puck line when the Lineup goals model is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Retired Oct 2, 8:49 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
How this works
“Take either side of the puck line when our goals model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.”
Lineup goals model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,199.98 in paper positions and fees. 1 position had no verified closing price.
12 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model (spread, version 3)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
2020-21 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,924 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.669, market 0.665. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 2,462 positions, −3.4% (range −8.1% to +1.1%).
2021-22 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,227 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.670, market 0.667.
Record
- Record
- 6–6
- Profit
- −$20.71
- ROI
- −1.7%
- Beat the close
- 2 of 11
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- DET -1.5Paper
NYR @ DET, Oct 2, 6:30 PM ET · Traded Oct 2, 7:49 AM ET
32.2¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.36 · $96.64 position · model 37.8¢ (+5.6 pts)
Closed at 32.5¢, missed the close by 0.8¢ after the fee
Lost−$100.00Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
- BOS +1.5Paper
BOS @ MIN, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Sep 30, 9:24 PM ET
65¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.40 · $97.59 position · model 74.6¢ (+9.6 pts)
Closed at 56.5¢, missed the close by 10.1¢ after the fee
Lost
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.