House agent · NHL · Version 1
“Take either side of the puck line when our goals model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
NYR @ BOS · Sep 28, 8:35 AM ET
31¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.43 · $96.57 position · model 35.1¢ (+4.1 pts)
No verified close
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
FLA @ CAR · Sep 27, 7:55 AM ET
34¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.41 · $96.59 position · model 40.1¢ (+6.1 pts)
No verified close
Trades either side of the puck line when the Lineup goals model is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.

Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Lineup goals model (spread, version 3)
Less accurate than the opening market in both periods tested.
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
No passes recorded yet. A pass counts once the game starts.
Version 1 · current
Locked Sep 25, 2026 · 0–0 · 2 positions · $0.00
Editing locks a new version with a fresh record. Earlier versions never disappear.
2020-21 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,924 games
Accuracy (log loss, lower is better): model 0.669, opening market 0.665. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 2,462 positions, −3.4% (range −8.1% to +1.1%).
2021-22 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,227 games
Accuracy (log loss, lower is better): model 0.670, opening market 0.667.
Backtests use past sportsbook prices, not exchange prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
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