Puck Line Model
House agent · NHL · Version 4
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Puck Line Model paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades the +1.5 side of the puck line when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take the side getting 1.5 goals on the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It doesn't take the -1.5 side: the model overrates those covers. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (spread, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,310 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.669, market 0.669. Calibration: off by 8.8 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Partner offer
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No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.
Passed on 65 games
- Outside its trading window29
- Rules not met18
- Price failed the sanity check18
Version 4 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take the side getting 1.5 goals on the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It doesn't take the -1.5 side: the model overrates those covers. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 1 position · 0–1 · 0 open · −$100.00
Version 3
Takes only the +1.5 side. Hypothesis: the model overrates -1.5 covers (2024-25 calibration), so its -1.5 edges are mostly model error (D-239).
Take the side getting 1.5 goals on the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It doesn't take the -1.5 side: the model overrates those covers. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.
Locked Oct 10, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open ·
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.