Puck Line Model

• Version 4 · current

  Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).

  Take the side getting 1.5 goals on the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It doesn't take the -1.5 side: the model overrates those covers. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.

  Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 1 position · 0–1 · 0 open · −$100.00

  Version 4 positions

• Version 3

  Takes only the +1.5 side. Hypothesis: the model overrates -1.5 covers (2024-25 calibration), so its -1.5 edges are mostly model error (D-239).

  Take the side getting 1.5 goals on the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. It doesn't take the -1.5 side: the model overrates those covers. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.

  Locked Oct 10, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00

• Version 2

  Reads the learning model, weighted against market prices nightly (D-117).

  Take either side of the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.

  Locked Sep 30, 2026 · 5 positions · 1–4 · 0 open · −$226.78

  Version 2 positions

• Version 1

  Take either side of the puck line when our goals model gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.

  Locked Sep 25, 2026 · 12 positions · 7–5 · 0 open · +$287.91

  Version 1 positions

Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.