Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar, ATP Tennis
Rolex Shanghai Masters (Masters 1000), final, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Jodar to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model37¢ Davidovich FokinaJodar 63.1¢
Best price45¢ KalshiKalshi 57¢
Track who winsDavidovich Fokina 45¢Jodar 57¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Jodar to win
+6.0 pts
We give Jodar a 63% chance to win.
Our model 63.1¢Best price 57¢ at Kalshi
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Davidovich Fokina 8.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jodar to win | 63.1¢ | 57¢ | +6.1 pts |
| Davidovich Fokina to win | 37¢ | 45¢ | −8.0 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Davidovich Fokina to win | Jodar to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||