Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), semifinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on de Minaur to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model61.5¢ Zverevde Minaur 38.5¢
Best price70¢ PolymarketFanDuel 29¢
Track who winsZverev 70¢de Minaur 29¢
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Kalshi
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesde Minaur to win
+9.5 pts
We give de Minaur a 39% chance to win.
Our model 38.5¢Best price 29¢ at FanDuel
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives de Minaur 9.5 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| de Minaur to win | 38.5¢ | 29¢ | +9.5 pts |
| Zverev to win | 61.5¢ | 70¢ | −8.5 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Zverev to win | de Minaur to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||