Clement Chidekh vs Francisco Cerundolo, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), quarterfinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Cerundolo to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model25.1¢ ChidekhCerundolo 74.9¢
Best price40¢ KalshiPolymarket 61¢
Track who winsChidekh 40¢Cerundolo 61¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Cerundolo to win
+13.9 pts
We give Cerundolo a 75% chance to win.
Our model 74.9¢Best price 61¢ at Polymarket
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Chidekh 14.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerundolo to win | 74.9¢ | 61¢ | +13.9 pts |
| Chidekh to win | 25.1¢ | 40¢ | −14.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Chidekh to win | Cerundolo to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||