Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima, ATP Tennis
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes (ATP 250), quarterfinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Cobolli to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model41.4¢ CobolliNakashima 58.6¢
Best price36¢ PolymarketKalshi 65¢
Track who winsCobolli 36¢Nakashima 65¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Cobolli to win
+5.4 pts
We give Cobolli a 41% chance to win.
Our model 41.4¢Best price 36¢ at Polymarket
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Nakashima 6.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nakashima to win | 58.6¢ | 65¢ | −6.4 pts |
| Cobolli to win | 41.4¢ | 36¢ | +5.4 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Cobolli to win | Nakashima to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||