Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Rinderknech to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model51.1¢ BellucciRinderknech 49¢
Best price57¢ KalshiPolymarket 43¢
Track who winsBellucci 57¢Rinderknech 43¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Rinderknech to win
+5.9 pts
We give Rinderknech a 49% chance to win.
Our model 48.9¢Best price 43¢ at Polymarket
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Rinderknech 6.0 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rinderknech to win | 49¢ | 43¢ | +6.0 pts |
| Bellucci to win | 51.1¢ | 57¢ | −5.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Bellucci to win | Rinderknech to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||