Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan-Lennard Struff, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Tirante to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model37.8¢ TiranteStruff 62.2¢
Best price30.2¢ DraftKingsKalshi 71¢
Track who winsTirante 30.2¢Struff 71¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesTirante to win
+7.6 pts
We give Tirante a 38% chance to win.
Our model 37.8¢Best price 30.2¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives Struff 8.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Struff to win | 62.2¢ | 71¢ | −8.8 pts |
| Tirante to win | 37.8¢ | 30.2¢ | +7.6 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Tirante to win | Struff to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||