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Merrimack Warriors at App State Mountaineers: Kalshi prices and model prediction
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How this works The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.
How it went Score by period Team H1 H2 T MRMK 21 28 49 APP 43 20 63
Scoring H2 0:16 · APP · Da'Mori Lytch makes 2-foot dunk (Jaylen Colon assists) · 49-63 H2 0:43 · MRMK · AJ Lesburt Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayden Johnson assists) · 49-61 H2 2:08 · APP · Rrezon Elezaj makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Ted Neal assists) · 46-61 H2 2:20 · MRMK · Jeremiah Anderson makes driving layup · 46-59 H2 3:15 · MRMK · Elijah Wilborn makes free throw 1 of 2 · 44-59 H2 5:43 · MRMK · Denver Anglin makes driving layup (Elijah Wilborn assists) · 43-59 Show all 59 H2 6:43 · MRMK · Elijah Wilborn makes layup · 41-59 H2 7:00 · APP · Chad Moodie makes free throw 2 of 2 · 39-59 H2 7:31 · APP · Jaylen Colon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ted Neal assists) · 39-58 H2 8:32 · MRMK · Jacob Moore makes layup (JP Skoric assists) · 39-55
H2 9:28 · MRMK · Rocco Westfield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Todd Brogna assists) · 37-55
H2 11:19 · MRMK · JP Skoric makes driving layup · 34-55
H2 13:21 · APP · Ben Kopetzki makes 25-foot three point jumper (Eren Banks assists) · 32-55
H2 14:41 · APP · Rrezon Elezaj makes free throw 1 of 2 · 32-52
H2 15:00 · MRMK · Dylan Veillette makes 0-foot tip in dunk · 32-51
H2 15:51 · APP · Eren Banks makes free throw 2 of 2 · 30-51
H2 15:51 · APP · Eren Banks makes free throw 1 of 2 · 30-50
H2 16:15 · APP · Ted Neal makes 16-foot jumper (Ben Kopetzki assists) · 30-49
H2 16:42 · APP · Ted Neal makes 0-foot tip in layup · 30-47
H2 17:29 · MRMK · AJ Lesburt Jr. makes layup (Elijah Wilborn assists) · 30-45
H2 18:44 · MRMK · Ayden Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper · 28-45
H2 18:59 · APP · Chad Moodie makes layup (Eren Banks assists) · 25-45
H2 19:17 · MRMK · Denver Anglin makes driving layup · 25-43
H2 19:43 · MRMK · Todd Brogna makes layup · 23-43
H1 0:51 · APP · Rrezon Elezaj makes free throw 2 of 2 · 21-43
H1 0:51 · APP · Rrezon Elezaj makes free throw 1 of 2 · 21-42
H1 1:36 · APP · Ben Kopetzki makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Colon assists) · 21-41
H1 1:55 · MRMK · Elijah Wilborn makes free throw 2 of 2 · 21-38
H1 1:55 · MRMK · Elijah Wilborn makes free throw 1 of 2 · 20-38
H1 2:16 · APP · Ben Kopetzki makes free throw 1 of 1 · 19-38
H1 2:16 · APP · Ben Kopetzki makes 19-foot jumper · 19-37
H1 3:04 · APP · Andrin Njock makes layup (Eren Banks assists) · 19-35
H1 4:35 · APP · Rrezon Elezaj makes free throw 1 of 2 · 19-33
H1 5:09 · MRMK · AJ Lesburt Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper · 19-32
H1 5:27 · MRMK · AJ Lesburt Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2 · 16-32
H1 5:27 · MRMK · AJ Lesburt Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2 · 15-32
H1 6:17 · APP · Ted Neal makes driving layup (Da'Mori Lytch assists) · 14-32
H1 6:36 · MRMK · Denver Anglin makes driving layup (Elijah Wilborn assists) · 14-30
H1 7:00 · APP · Chad Moodie makes free throw 2 of 2 · 12-30
H1 7:00 · APP · Chad Moodie makes free throw 1 of 2 · 12-29
H1 7:18 · MRMK · Denver Anglin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayden Johnson assists) · 12-28
H1 7:44 · MRMK · Elijah Wilborn makes 0-foot tip in layup · 9-28
H1 8:40 · APP · Da'Mori Lytch makes 12-foot pullup jump shot · 7-28
H1 9:15 · APP · Jaylen Colon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Da'Mori Lytch assists) · 7-26
H1 10:17 · MRMK · Jeremiah Anderson makes 12-foot floating jump shot · 7-23
H1 12:00 · MRMK · JP Skoric makes 4-foot pullup jump shot · 5-23
H1 12:56 · APP · Jaylen Colon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Eren Banks assists) · 3-23
H1 13:30 · APP · Ted Neal makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Eren Banks assists) · 3-20
H1 14:11 · APP · Jaylen Colon makes 16-foot pullup jump shot · 3-18
H1 15:28 · APP · Ben Kopetzki makes 24-foot three point jumper · 3-16
H1 15:56 · APP · Jaylen Colon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Kopetzki assists) · 3-13
H1 16:05 · MRMK · Dylan Veillette makes 0-foot tip in dunk · 3-10
H1 16:30 · APP · Ted Neal makes layup · 1-10
H1 16:52 · MRMK · Denver Anglin makes free throw 1 of 2 · 1-8
H1 17:19 · APP · Eren Banks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ted Neal assists) · 0-8
H1 18:04 · APP · Ted Neal makes free throw 2 of 2 · 0-5
H1 18:04 · APP · Ted Neal makes free throw 1 of 2 · 0-4
H1 18:05 · APP · Chad Moodie makes free throw 1 of 2 · 0-3
H1 18:52 · APP · Chad Moodie makes 0-foot alley oop dunk (Ted Neal assists) · 0-2 Box score Merrimack Warriors
Merrimack Warriors player stats Player MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PM TO FG AJ Lesburt Jr. 35 10 3 0 0 0 2 2 3-10 Denver Anglin 30 10 2 0 1 0 1 1 4-14 Ayden Johnson 27 3 1 2 0 0 1 1 1-4 Elijah Wilborn 21 7 5 3 1 1 0 2 2-4 Jeremiah Anderson 20 4 4 0 3 1 0 1 2-8 Todd Brogna 20 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 1-4 Jacob Moore 16 2 3 0 1 0 0 1 1-3 Dylan Veillette 12 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 2-3 JP Skoric 11 4 3 1 2 0 0 1 2-3 Rocco Westfield 8 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 1-1
Did not play: Amare Guerra, Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano, David Munro, Quinn Kwasniak, Tye Dorset
App State Mountaineers
App State Mountaineers player stats Player MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PM TO FG Jaylen Colon 38 14 4 2 2 0 4 1 5-14 Ben Kopetzki 38 12 5 2 1 0 3 0 4-13 Eren Banks 33 5 5 5 1 0
Our model Lineup college basketball points model Experimental This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live. Lineup college basketball points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract Contract Model Best price Model vs. best price MRMK to win 42.2¢ 40¢ +2.2 pts APP to win 57.9¢ 60¢ −2.1 pts MRMK +3.5 52.2¢ 52¢ +0.2 pts APP -3.5 47.9¢ 49¢ −1.1 pts MRMK +3 50.5¢ 52.4¢ −1.9 pts APP -3 49.5¢ 52.4¢ −2.9 pts MRMK +2.5 48.8¢ 51.9¢ −3.1 pts APP -2.5 51.2¢ 53.5¢ −2.3 pts Over 133.5 51.9¢ 49¢ +2.9 pts Under 133.5 48.1¢ 52¢ −3.9 pts Over 134.5 49.6¢ 46¢ +3.6 pts Under 134.5 50.4¢ 53.1¢ −2.6 pts
Nov 1, 3:39 PM Nov 2, 6:00 AM ET
Price history for APP to win by source, in cents Price history for APP to win by source, in cents Series Time (ET) Price Polymarket Nov 1, 9:53 PM 40¢ Polymarket Nov 1, 11:38 PM 41¢ Polymarket Nov 1, 11:48 PM 40¢ Polymarket Nov 2, 4:59 AM 39¢ Polymarket Nov 2, 5:03 AM 62¢ Polymarket Nov 2, 5:23 AM 60¢ Kalshi Nov 1, 9:53 PM 40¢ Kalshi Nov 1, 10:28 PM 39¢ Kalshi Nov 1, 11:03 PM 40¢ Kalshi Nov 2, 5:03 AM 61¢ Kalshi Nov 2, 5:54 AM 60¢ BetRivers Nov 1, 3:39 PM 41.2¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 2:28 AM 40.8¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 4:53 AM 44.8¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 4:55 AM 40.8¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 5:03 AM 64.5¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 5:15 AM 60.8¢ BetRivers Nov 2, 5:29 AM 61.8¢ BetMGM Nov 1, 3:39 PM 41.7¢ BetMGM Nov 2, 5:03 AM 63¢ BetMGM Nov 2, 5:56 AM 61.5¢ BetMGM Nov 2, 5:59 AM 62.3¢
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Prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbooks via our data provider. Paper trades only.
Rrezon Elezaj 19 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 1-1
Mason Costello 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-2
Did not play: Bryan Chretien, Cameron O'Kelley, Corbin Allen, Grant Clayton, Jackson Love, Jonathan Moss, KJ Vasser, Luke Ledford
Caesars 52.4¢ best price 52.4¢ best price
MRMK +2.5 / APP -2.5
Spread, MRMK +2.5 or APP -2.5, prices by source Source MRMK +2.5 APP -2.5 Sportsbooks BetRivers 51.9¢ best price 53.5¢ best price
52.4¢
1 more line Total 134.5
Total 134.5, Over 134.5 or Under 134.5, prices by source Source Over 134.5 Under 134.5 Exchanges Kalshi 46¢ best price 55¢ Sportsbooks BetRivers 52.4¢ 53.1¢ best price
