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California Golden Bears at Houston Cougars: Kalshi prices and model prediction
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How this works The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened.
How it went Score by period Team H1 H2 T CAL 32 36 68 HOU 43 43 86
Scoring H2 0:20 · CAL · Mantas Kocanas makes 2-foot dunk (Michael Cooper assists) · 68-86 H2 0:28 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes free throw 2 of 2 · 66-86 H2 0:28 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes free throw 1 of 2 · 66-85 H2 0:54 · CAL · Mantas Kocanas makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Ross assists) · 66-84 H2 1:11 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 8-foot jumper · 64-84 H2 3:04 · CAL · Jake Wilkins makes 16-foot jumper · 64-82 Show all 79 H2 3:32 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes layup (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 62-82 H2 5:18 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 13-foot jumper · 62-80 H2 6:02 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes 12-foot jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 62-78 H2 6:19 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes layup · 62-76 H2 6:41 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 6-foot jumper · 60-76
H2 6:57 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes 9-foot jumper · 60-74
H2 7:33 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1 · 58-74
H2 7:33 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 9-foot jumper · 58-73
H2 8:04 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes layup · 58-71
H2 8:38 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 22-foot three point jumper (Semetri Carr assists) · 56-71
H2 8:53 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 17-foot jumper · 53-71
H2 9:20 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2 · 53-69
H2 9:20 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2 · 52-69
H2 9:36 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes 4-foot dunk (Joseph Tugler assists) · 51-69
H2 10:33 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 22-foot three point jumper (Semetri Carr assists) · 51-67
H2 10:57 · CAL · Jovani Ruff makes layup (Amier Ali assists) · 48-67
H2 11:36 · CAL · Jovani Ruff makes 6-foot jumper (Amier Ali assists) · 46-67
H2 12:01 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes layup (Arafan Diane assists) · 44-67
H2 12:15 · CAL · Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut makes free throw 2 of 2 · 44-65
H2 12:15 · CAL · Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut makes free throw 1 of 2 · 43-65
H2 12:35 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kordel Jefferson assists) · 42-65
H2 12:49 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Semetri Carr assists) · 42-62
H2 13:13 · HOU · Chendall Weaver makes layup (Kordel Jefferson assists) · 39-62
H2 14:06 · HOU · Corey Hadnot II makes 6-foot jumper · 39-60
H2 14:28 · CAL · Sammie Yeanay makes free throw 2 of 2 · 39-58
H2 14:51 · HOU · Braden East makes 12-foot jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 38-58
H2 15:09 · CAL · Sammie Yeanay makes layup · 38-56
H2 15:31 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes 9-foot jumper · 36-56
H2 16:09 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes 6-foot jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 36-54
H2 16:26 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes free throw 2 of 2 · 36-52
H2 16:45 · HOU · Chase McCarty makes free throw 2 of 2 · 35-52
H2 16:45 · HOU · Chase McCarty makes free throw 1 of 2 · 35-51
H2 17:06 · CAL · Sammie Yeanay makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mantas Kocanas assists) · 35-50
H2 17:24 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes layup · 32-50
H2 17:58 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes layup · 32-48
H2 19:06 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chase McCarty assists) · 32-46
H1 0:03 · CAL · Jovani Ruff makes free throw 2 of 2 · 32-43
H1 0:03 · CAL · Jovani Ruff makes free throw 1 of 2 · 31-43
H1 0:34 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes layup · 30-43
H1 0:58 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes layup (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 30-41
H1 1:34 · CAL · Nojus Indrusaitis makes 7-foot jumper · 30-39
H1 1:57 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes free throw 2 of 2 · 28-39
H1 1:57 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes free throw 1 of 2 · 28-38
H1 3:39 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes layup · 28-37
H1 5:32 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Ross assists) · 28-35
H1 6:08 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 24-foot three point jumper · 25-35
H1 6:45 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes free throw 2 of 2 · 22-35
H1 6:45 · HOU · Mercy Miller makes free throw 1 of 2 · 22-34
H1 7:12 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes layup · 22-33
H1 7:23 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes 13-foot jumper · 20-33
H1 7:51 · CAL · Michael Cooper makes 11-foot jumper (Jordan Ross assists) · 18-33
H1 8:34 · HOU · Braden East makes free throw 2 of 2 · 16-33
H1 9:09 · HOU · Braden East makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mercy Miller assists) · 16-32
H1 9:32 · HOU · Braden East makes layup · 16-29
H1 10:08 · HOU · Chase McCarty makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kordel Jefferson assists) · 16-27
H1 11:45 · CAL · Jovani Ruff makes 10-foot jumper · 16-24
H1 13:11 · HOU · Delrecco Gillespie makes 2-foot dunk (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 14-24
H1 13:51 · CAL · Amier Ali makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jovani Ruff assists) · 14-22
H1 14:10 · HOU · Chendall Weaver makes 8-foot dunk · 11-22
H1 14:26 · HOU · Chendall Weaver makes 4-foot dunk · 11-20
H1 14:45 · CAL · Nojus Indrusaitis makes free throw 2 of 2 · 11-18
H1 14:56 · HOU · Arafan Diane makes layup · 10-18
H1 15:43 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes layup (Arafan Diane assists) · 10-16
H1 16:14 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes 15-foot jumper (Corey Hadnot II assists) · 10-14
H1 16:30 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes layup (Mantas Kocanas assists) · 10-12
H1 16:50 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes 6-foot jumper · 8-12
H1 17:08 · CAL · Nojus Indrusaitis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Ross assists) · 8-10
H1 17:29 · HOU · Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 4-foot jumper · 5-10
H1 18:10 · CAL · Jordan Ross makes layup (Sammie Yeanay assists) · 5-8
H1 18:31 · HOU · Chase McCarty makes 22-foot three point jumper (Delrecco Gillespie assists) · 3-8
H1 18:53 · CAL · Sammie Yeanay makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Ross assists) · 3-5
H1 19:16 · HOU · Chase McCarty makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 0-5
H1 19:42 · HOU · Joseph Tugler makes 8-foot jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists) · 0-2 Box score California Golden Bears
California Golden Bears player stats Player MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PM TO FG Nojus Indrusaitis 30 6 4 0 1 0 1 4 2-5 Michael Cooper 29 19 2 1 2 1 5 0 6-11 Jordan Ross 27 15 2 5 1 0 0 3 7-11 Mantas Kocanas 21 4 2 2 0 0 0 3 2-3 Jake Wilkins 20 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 1-3 Semetri Carr 16 0 6 3 0 0 0 0 0-2 Sammie Yeanay 15 9 2 1 0 0 2 1 3-9 Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut 15 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0-2 Jovani Ruff 12 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 3-6 Amier Ali 12 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 1-5 Dominykas Daubaris 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-0
Did not play: BJ Fisher, Dionycius Bakare, Gabriel Sularski, Jorell Clark, Lee Dort, Luke Butler, Nicolas Mitrovic
Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars player stats Player MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PM TO FG Dedan Thomas Jr. 35 20 2 8 2 0 1 1 9-15 Mercy Miller 32 8 2 1 3 0 0 1 2-7 Joseph Tugler 27 16 3 1 2 4
Our model Lineup college basketball points model Experimental This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live. Lineup college basketball points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract Contract Model Best price Model vs. best price CAL to win 6.6¢ – – HOU to win 93.4¢ – – CAL +19.5 53.9¢ 49¢ +4.9 pts HOU -19.5 46.1¢ 52¢ −5.9 pts Over 143.5 62¢ 49¢ +13.0 pts Under 143.5 38¢ 51.9¢ −13.9 pts Over 143 63.4¢ 52.4¢ +11.0 pts Under 143 36.6¢ 52.4¢ −15.7 pts Over 145.5 57.4¢ – – Under 145.5 42.6¢ – –
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Prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbooks via our data provider. Paper trades only.
Delrecco Gillespie 26 13 8 1 0 0 1 1 6-10
Corey Hadnot II 21 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 1-5
Chendall Weaver 15 6 6 0 3 0 0 0 3-5
Chase McCarty 12 11 2 1 1 0 3 0 3-8
Kordel Jefferson 5 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0-0
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Djafar Silimana, Ikenna Alozie, Tyus Thomas
53.3¢
2 more lines Total 143
Total 143, Over 143 or Under 143, prices by source Source Over 143 Under 143 Sportsbooks Caesars 52.4¢ best price 52.4¢ best price Fanatics 52.4¢ 52.4¢
Total 145.5
Total 145.5, Over 145.5 or Under 145.5, prices by source Source Over 145.5 Under 145.5 Exchanges Kalshi Hidden – Polymarket Hidden –
Hidden: no sportsbook price to check against.