Brock Nelson

NHL · Colorado Avalanche · C

Everything we track on Brock Nelson: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

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at DAL · Tue, Oct 13, 8:30 PM ET

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How our models have done on Brock Nelson

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	36%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	30%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	33%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	37%	0.5	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	32%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	28%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	30%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	34%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	57%	0.8	1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	50%	0.7	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	54%	0.8	0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	58%	0.9	0	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	21%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	18%	0.2	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	20%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	22%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	25%	0.3	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	21%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	23%	0.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	26%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	25%	0.3	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	21%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	23%	0.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	26%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	2.5	41%	2.3	4	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1.5	68%	2.4	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1.5	68%	2.4	0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	2.5	42%	2.4	1	Won

Model's side won 1 of 4

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	53%	0.8	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	54%	0.8	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	54%	0.8	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	53%	0.8	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	55%	0.8	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	56%	0.8	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	56%	0.8	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	55%	0.8	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	52%	0.7	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	52%	0.8	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	52%	0.8	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	52%	0.7	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	32%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	28%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	30%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	34%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	10%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	11%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	12%	0.1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	10%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	13%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	14%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	1%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	6%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	4%	0.0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	5%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	4%	0.0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	5%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	6%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	6%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Recent games

Last 5 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 vs TOR	1	0	1	4	0
Oct 8, 2026 at CGY	0	1	1	1	2
Oct 7, 2026 at WPG	0	0	0	0	1
Oct 3, 2026 vs STL	0	0	0	1	0
Sep 30, 2026 vs LAK	1	2	3	1	0
Season average (5 games)	0.4	0.6	1	1.4	0.6