Nathan MacKinnon

NHL · Colorado Avalanche · C

Everything we track on Nathan MacKinnon: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

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at DAL · Tue, Oct 13, 8:30 PM ET

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How our models have done on Nathan MacKinnon

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	62%	1.0	0	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	53%	0.8	2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	57%	0.8	0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	59%	0.9	3	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	44%	0.6	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	37%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	40%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	42%	0.6	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1.5	45%	1.5	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	2	34%	1.2	3	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1.5	39%	1.3	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	2	42%	1.4	3	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	36%	0.4	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	30%	0.3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	32%	0.4	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	34%	0.4	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	40%	0.5	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	34%	0.4	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	37%	0.5	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	39%	0.5	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	41%	0.5	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	34%	0.4	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	37%	0.5	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	39%	0.5	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	3.5	56%	4.1	8	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	3.5	56%	4.1	2	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	3.5	55%	4.0	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 STL	3.5	51%	3.8	4	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	2	38%	1.3	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	2	38%	1.3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	2	37%	1.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	2	35%	1.2	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	2	41%	1.4	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	2	41%	1.4	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	2	40%	1.4	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	2	37%	1.3	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	2	36%	1.3	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	2	36%	1.3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	2	35%	1.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	2	33%	1.2	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	44%	0.6	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	37%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	40%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	42%	0.6	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	15%	0.2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	15%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	17%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	14%	0.2	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	17%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	18%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	16%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	18%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	1%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	0.5	8%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	7%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	7%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	8%	0.1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	8%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	1	7%	0.1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 STL	1	8%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Power-play points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Power-play points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 TOR	0.5	24%	0.3	Won
Oct 8, 2026 CGY	0.5	24%	0.3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WPG	0.5	24%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 3 of 3

Recent games

Last 5 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 vs TOR	2	0	2	8	0
Oct 8, 2026 at CGY	1	2	3	2	0
Oct 7, 2026 at WPG	0	0	0	1	0
Oct 3, 2026 vs STL	0	3	3	4	0
Sep 30, 2026 vs LAK	2	0	2	8	2
Season average (5 games)	1	1	2	4.6	0.4