Tom Wilson

NHL · Washington Capitals · R

Everything we track on Tom Wilson: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

Next game

at CAR · Tue, Oct 13, 6:45 PM ET

Open the game page

How our models have done on Tom Wilson

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	0.5	35%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	32%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	36%	0.4	2	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	29%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	32%	0.4	1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 5

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1.5	6%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	29%	0.3	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	33%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	27%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	30%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 5

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	0.5	55%	0.8	0	Lost
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	52%	0.7	1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	57%	0.9	3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	48%	0.7	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	52%	0.7	1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	21%	0.2	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	19%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	22%	0.2	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	17%	0.2	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	19%	0.2	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 5

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	24%	0.3	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	22%	0.3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	25%	0.3	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	20%	0.2	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	22%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	24%	0.3	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	23%	0.3	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	25%	0.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	20%	0.2	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	22%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	3	40%	2.3	3	Lost
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1.5	58%	2.0	3	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1.5	62%	2.2	2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1.5	61%	2.1	2	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	2	59%	2.0	0	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 5

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	52%	0.8	Lost
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	47%	0.6	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	50%	0.7	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	49%	0.7	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	48%	0.7	Won

Model's side won 3 of 5

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	54%	0.8	Lost
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	49%	0.7	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	52%	0.7	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	52%	0.7	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	50%	0.7	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 5

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	51%	0.7	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	46%	0.6	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	49%	0.7	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	48%	0.7	Lost
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	47%	0.6	Won

Model's side won 2 of 5

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	0.5	32%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	29%	0.3	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	33%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	27%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	30%	0.4	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 5

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	10%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	11%	0.1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	10%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	10%	0.1	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	11%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	12%	0.1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	12%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	1%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	1%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	1%	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	0.5	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	0.5	4%	0.0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	0.5	5%	0.0	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	5%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	4%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	5%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	4%	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	5%	0.0	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	1	5%	0.0	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 TBL	1	4%	0.0	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	4%	0.0	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

Power-play points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Power-play points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 11, 2026 SEA	0.5	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 9, 2026 NYR	0.5	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 PIT	0.5	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 2, 2026 CAR	1	15%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Recent games

Last 5 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 11, 2026 vs SEA	0	0	0	3	7
Oct 9, 2026 vs NYR	1	0	1	3	3
Oct 7, 2026 vs PIT	1	2	3	2	2
Oct 3, 2026 at TBL	0	0	0	2	3
Oct 2, 2026 at CAR	0	1	1	0	3
Season average (5 games)	0.4	0.6	1	2	3.6