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College basketball predictions for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Today's read

65 College basketball games today. Our model's biggest gap is the Hofstra Pride at 42¢ on Kalshi, a 62% chance by our model.

Biggest gaps

  1. Hofstra Pride at Princeton Tigers, 7:00 PM ET

    Hofstra Pride: 42¢ on Kalshi, our model 62%, a gap of 20.3 points

  2. Cornell Big Red at Lehigh Mountain Hawks, 7:00 PM ET

    Cornell Big Red: 54¢ on Kalshi, our model 69%, a gap of 14.5 pointsEdge

  3. West Georgia Wolves at Loyola Chicago Ramblers, 8:00 PM ET

    West Georgia Wolves: 7¢ on Kalshi, our model 21%, a gap of 13.9 points

A gap is our model's chance minus the price in cents.

Experimental: this model hasn't beaten the market yet.

How the model did yesterday

  • Our model's favourite won 9 of 10 games.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 4 of 10.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the Loyola Marymount Lions 70% and they lost.
  • Best call: the Northern Kentucky Norse won at 58¢, with our model at 61%.

All of yesterday's games

5–2+$271.58house agents, 7 settled prediction-market trades

MCNMcNeese CowboysUNTNorth Texas Mean Green
Upcoming5:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • MCNModel 48%Kalshi 55¢ (Latest price)−6.6 pts model vs market
  • UNTModel 52%Kalshi 47¢ (Latest price)+4.6 pts model vs marketEdge
Game page
UVALVirginia-Lynchburg DragonsMOREMorehead State Eagles
Upcoming5:15 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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KINKings (PA) MonarchsLAFLafayette Leopards
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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CHSTChicago State CougarsUIWIncarnate Word Cardinals
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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UTCChattanooga MocsPSUPenn State Nittany Lions
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UTCModel 10%Kalshi 10¢ (Latest price)−0.2 pts model vs market
  • PSUModel 90%Kalshi 92¢ (Latest price)−1.8 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
BELLBellarmine KnightsIUIndiana Hoosiers
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • BELLModel 2%
  • IUModel 98%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
MSMMount Saint Mary (NY) KnightsARMYArmy Black Knights
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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WAKEWake Forest Demon DeaconsVANVanderbilt Commodores
Upcoming6:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • WAKEModel 12%Kalshi 7¢ (Latest price)+5.3 pts model vs market
  • VANModel 88%Kalshi 94¢ (Latest price)−6.3 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
LIULong Island University SharksHALLSeton Hall Pirates
Upcoming6:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • LIUModel 4%Kalshi 5¢ (Latest price)−1.4 pts model vs market
  • HALLModel 96%Kalshi 95¢ (Latest price)+1.4 pts model vs market
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HOWPAYHoward Payne Yellow JacketsTXSTTexas State Bobcats
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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KALKalamazoo HornetsWMUWestern Michigan Broncos
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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GASTGeorgia State PanthersCLTCharlotte 49ers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • GASTModel 20%Kalshi 13¢ (Latest price)+7.1 pts model vs marketEdge
  • CLTModel 80%Kalshi 87¢ (Latest price)−7.1 pts model vs market
Game page
HOWHoward BisonALCNAlcorn State Braves
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • HOWModel 71%Kalshi 75¢ (Latest price)−4.3 pts model vs market
  • ALCNModel 29%Kalshi 27¢ (Latest price)+2.3 pts model vs market
Game page
GBGreen Bay PhoenixCINCincinnati Bearcats
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • GBModel 4%Kalshi 3¢ (Latest price)+0.9 pts model vs market
  • CINModel 96%Kalshi 98¢ (Latest price)−1.8 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
BRYBryant BulldogsQUINQuinnipiac Bobcats
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • BRYModel 25%Kalshi 35¢ (Latest price)−9.6 pts model vs market
  • QUINModel 75%Kalshi 67¢ (Latest price)+7.6 pts model vs marketEdge
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UMLUMass Lowell River HawksMRMKMerrimack Warriors
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UMLModel 33%Kalshi 26¢ (Latest price)+6.5 pts model vs marketEdge
  • MRMKModel 67%Kalshi 75¢ (Latest price)−7.5 pts model vs market
Game page
UALBUAlbany Great DanesMANManhattan Jaspers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UALBModel 35%Polymarket 40¢ (Latest price)−4.8 pts model vs market
  • MANModel 65%Polymarket 61¢ (Latest price)+3.8 pts model vs market
Game page
MERCMercyhurst LakersNDNotre Dame Fighting Irish
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • MERCModel 3%Kalshi 4¢ (Latest price)−0.8 pts model vs market
  • NDModel 97%Kalshi 97¢ (Latest price)−0.2 pts model vs market
Game page
CCSUCentral Connecticut Blue DevilsSYRSyracuse Orange
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • CCSUModel 5%Kalshi 4¢ (Latest price)+0.6 pts model vs market
  • SYRModel 95%Kalshi 98¢ (Latest price)−2.6 pts model vs market
Game page
BUFBuffalo BullsPITTPittsburgh Panthers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • BUFModel 6%Kalshi 5¢ (Latest price)+1.4 pts model vs market
  • PITTModel 94%Kalshi 96¢ (Latest price)−2.4 pts model vs market
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CBSCollege Of Biblical Studies AmbassadorsPVPrairie View A&M Panthers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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FTVALLEYFort Valley State WildcatsFAMUFlorida A&M Rattlers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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CBMOCentral Bible SaintsLINLindenwood Lions
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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SVASouthern Virginia KnightsRICHRichmond Spiders
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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HOFHofstra PridePRINPrinceton Tigers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • HOFModel 62%Kalshi 42¢ (Latest price)+20.3 pts model vs market
  • PRINModel 38%Kalshi 59¢ (Latest price)−21.3 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
CORCornell Big RedLEHLehigh Mountain Hawks
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • CORModel 69%Kalshi 54¢ (Latest price)+14.5 pts model vs marketEdge
  • LEHModel 31%Kalshi 48¢ (Latest price)−16.5 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
OLDWOld Westbury PanthersCOLUColumbia Lions
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
MEMaine Black BearsSHUSacred Heart Pioneers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • MEModel 23%Kalshi 30¢ (Latest price)−7.1 pts model vs market
  • SHUModel 77%Kalshi 72¢ (Latest price)+5.1 pts model vs marketEdge
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UNHNew Hampshire WildcatsRIDRider Broncs
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UNHModel 50%Kalshi 49¢ (Latest price)+1.3 pts model vs market
  • RIDModel 50%Kalshi 53¢ (Latest price)−3.3 pts model vs market
Game page
DSUDelaware State HornetsNAVYNavy Midshipmen
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • DSUModel 16%Kalshi 20¢ (Latest price)−4.4 pts model vs market
  • NAVYModel 84%Kalshi 80¢ (Latest price)+4.4 pts model vs marketEdge
Game page
UMBCUMBC RetrieversMRSTMarist Red Foxes
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UMBCModel 41%Kalshi 41¢ (Latest price)−0.4 pts model vs market
  • MRSTModel 59%Kalshi 61¢ (Latest price)−1.6 pts model vs market
Game page
NJITNJIT HighlandersIONAIona Gaels
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • NJITModel 24%Kalshi 20¢ (Latest price)+3.9 pts model vs market
  • IONAModel 76%Kalshi 82¢ (Latest price)−5.9 pts model vs market
Game page
UVMVermont CatamountsFAIRFairfield Stags
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • UVMModel 42%Kalshi 49¢ (Latest price)−7.3 pts model vs market
  • FAIRModel 58%Kalshi 53¢ (Latest price)+5.3 pts model vs marketEdge
Game page
MERMercer BearsVTVirginia Tech Hokies
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • MERModel 10%Kalshi 4¢ (Latest price)+6.2 pts model vs market
  • VTModel 90%Kalshi 98¢ (Latest price)−8.2 pts model vs market
Game page
COLIColumbia International RamsCHSOCharleston Southern Buccaneers
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
BINGBinghamton BearcatsSPUSaint Peter's Peacocks
Upcoming7:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • BINGModel 21%Kalshi 27¢ (Latest price)−6.4 pts model vs market
  • SPUModel 79%Kalshi 75¢ (Latest price)+4.4 pts model vs marketEdge
Game page
KYWESLKentucky Wesleyan PanthersWKUWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
STOStonehill SkyhawksFORFordham Rams
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • STOModel 9%Polymarket 6¢ (Latest price)+3.1 pts model vs market
  • FORModel 91%Polymarket 96.9¢ (Latest price)−6.0 pts model vs market
Game page
NWSTNorthwestern State DemonsMSSTMississippi State Bulldogs
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • NWSTModel 7%Kalshi 5¢ (Latest price)+2.2 pts model vs market
  • MSSTModel 93%Kalshi 97¢ (Latest price)−4.2 pts model vs market
Game page
UNIUnion (TN) BulldogsUNANorth Alabama Lions
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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ARKMONTBoll WeevilsLTLouisiana Tech Bulldogs
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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CENTREColonelsBELBelmont Bruins
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

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JKSTJackson State TigersTULNTulane Green Wave
Upcoming7:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • JKSTModel 8%Kalshi 13¢ (Latest price)−5.5 pts model vs market
  • TULNModel 92%Kalshi 89¢ (Latest price)+3.5 pts model vs market
Game page
JXSTJacksonville State GamecocksUSASouth Alabama Jaguars
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • JXSTModel 47%Polymarket 46¢ (Latest price)+1.0 pts model vs market
  • USAModel 53%Polymarket 62¢ (Latest price)−9.1 pts model vs market
Game page
NIUNorthern Illinois HuskiesTLSATulsa Golden Hurricane
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • NIUModel 6%Kalshi 9¢ (Latest price)−3.4 pts model vs market
  • TLSAModel 94%Kalshi 93¢ (Latest price)+1.4 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
VMIVMI KeydetsSMUSMU Mustangs
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • VMIModel 2%Kalshi 3¢ (Latest price)−1.2 pts model vs market
  • SMUModel 98%Kalshi 98¢ (Latest price)+0.2 pts model vs market
Game page
WGAWest Georgia WolvesLUCLoyola Chicago Ramblers
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • WGAModel 21%Kalshi 7¢ (Latest price)+13.9 pts model vs market
  • LUCModel 79%Kalshi 95¢ (Latest price)−15.9 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
GWEBGardner-Webb Runnin' BulldogsTEXTexas Longhorns
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • GWEBModel 1%
  • TEXModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
JAXJacksonville DolphinsFLAFlorida Gators
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • JAXModel 1%
  • FLAModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
CSOCentral State (OH) MaraudersILSTIllinois State Redbirds
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
TOLToledo RocketsMSUMichigan State Spartans
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • TOLModel 3%
  • MSUModel 97%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
ETAMEast Texas A&M LionsRICERice Owls
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • ETAMModel 32%Kalshi 37¢ (Latest price)−5.3 pts model vs market
  • RICEModel 68%Kalshi 64¢ (Latest price)+4.3 pts model vs marketEdge
Game page
EASEast-West University PhantomsTNSTTennessee State Tigers
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
CCUCoastal Carolina ChanticleersDUKEDuke Blue Devils
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • CCUModel 1%
  • DUKEModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
LEMLe Moyne DolphinsCREICreighton Bluejays
Upcoming8:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • LEMModel 2%
  • CREIModel 98%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
GRCUGrace University LancersSUUSouthern Utah Thunderbirds
Upcoming8:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
PENNPennsylvania QuakersILLIllinois Fighting Illini
Upcoming8:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • PENNModel 1%
  • ILLModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
CALUCalumet College Crimson WaveAFAir Force Falcons
Upcoming8:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
USFSouth Florida BullsDEPDePaul Blue Demons
Upcoming8:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • USFModel 42%Kalshi 29¢ (Latest price)+13.4 pts model vs marketEdge
  • DEPModel 58%Kalshi 71¢ (Latest price)−13.4 pts model vs market

House agents' paper trades Paper

Each trade used its agent's model when it opened, so it can differ from the model above.

Game page
TOWTowson TigersUTAHUtah Utes
Upcoming9:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • TOWModel 17%Kalshi 18¢ (Latest price)−0.8 pts model vs market
  • UTAHModel 83%Kalshi 83¢ (Latest price)−0.2 pts model vs market
Game page
BCUBethune-Cookman WildcatsTTUTexas Tech Red Raiders
Upcoming9:00 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • BCUModel 1%
  • TTUModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
MENLOOaksUCDUC Davis Aggies
Upcoming9:00 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
STNStanton ElksCSUBCal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Upcoming9:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
LA SILa Sierra Golden EaglesPEPPPepperdine Waves
Upcoming10:30 PM ET

No model prediction for this game

Game page
CPCal Poly MustangsARIZArizona Wildcats
Upcoming10:30 PM ET

Lineup college basketball points model (Experimental), latest run

  • CPModel 1%
  • ARIZModel 99%

No Kalshi or Polymarket price yet

Game page
Trade on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.