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The Lineup
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NFL predictions for Monday, October 5, 2026

How the model did

  • Our model's favourite won 0 of 1 game.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 1 of 1.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the New Orleans Saints 51% and they lost.
  • Best call: the Atlanta Falcons won at 48.5¢, with our model at 49%.
Atlanta Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons logoAtlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints logoNew Orleans Saints logoNew Orleans Saints
FinalATL 45, NO 24

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • ATLModel 49%Kalshi 48.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.3 pts model vs market
  • NOModel 51%Kalshi 51.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.3 pts model vs market
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Trade on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.