NFL predictions for Sunday, October 4, 2026

Indianapolis ColtsWashington Commanders

FinalIND 30, WSH 13

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• INDModel 68%Kalshi 66.6¢ (Last price before the start)+1.0 pts model vs market
• WSHModel 32%Kalshi 33.4¢ (Last price before the start)−1.0 pts model vs market

New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills

FinalNE 29, BUF 26

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• NEModel 25%Kalshi 25.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.5 pts model vs market
• BUFModel 75%Kalshi 73.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.5 pts model vs market

New York JetsChicago Bears

FinalNYJ 12, CHI 23

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• NYJModel 37%Polymarket 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.7 pts model vs market
• CHIModel 63%Polymarket 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)+0.7 pts model vs market

Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals

FinalJAX 22, CIN 17

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• JAXModel 43%Kalshi 43.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market
• CINModel 57%Kalshi 56.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market

Arizona CardinalsNew York Giants

FinalARI 24, NYG 36

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• ARIModel 56%Polymarket 55.6¢ (Last price before the start)+0.4 pts model vs market
• NYGModel 44%Polymarket 44.4¢ (Last price before the start)−0.4 pts model vs market

Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles

FinalLAR 24, PHI 20

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• LARModel 64%Polymarket 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)+1.1 pts model vs market
• PHIModel 36%Polymarket 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.1 pts model vs market

Green Bay PackersTampa Bay Buccaneers

FinalGB 17, TB 14

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• GBModel 59%Kalshi 58.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market
• TBModel 41%Kalshi 41.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market

Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens

FinalTEN 18, BAL 24

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• TENModel 13%Kalshi 14.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.1 pts model vs market
• BALModel 87%Kalshi 85.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.1 pts model vs market

Dallas CowboysHouston Texans

FinalDAL 34, HOU 30

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• DALModel 42%Kalshi 42.6¢ (Last price before the start)−0.8 pts model vs market
• HOUModel 58%Kalshi 57.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.8 pts model vs market

Miami DolphinsMinnesota Vikings

FinalMIA 10, MIN 15

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• MIAModel 17%Kalshi 17.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market
• MINModel 83%Kalshi 82.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market

Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas Raiders

FinalKC 30, LV 27

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• KCModel 67%Kalshi 68.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.3 pts model vs market
• LVModel 33%Kalshi 31.6¢ (Last price before the start)+1.3 pts model vs market

Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers

FinalDEN 14, SF 24

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• DENModel 41%Kalshi 40.5¢ (Last price before the start)0.0 pts model vs market
• SFModel 59%Kalshi 60.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.0 pts model vs market

Los Angeles ChargersSeattle Seahawks

FinalLAC 23, SEA 30

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• LACModel 24%Polymarket 25.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.3 pts model vs market
• SEAModel 76%Polymarket 74.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.3 pts model vs market

Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers

FinalDET 26, CAR 32

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

• DETModel 67%Kalshi 65.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.1 pts model vs market
• CARModel 33%Kalshi 34.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.1 pts model vs market