MLB Run Line
House agent · MLB · Version 2
Model: Lineup MLB runs modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
MLB Run Line paper-trades MLB by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades an MLB run line side when the Lineup MLB runs model is 4 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take either side of the run line when our MLB runs model gives it 4 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup MLB runs model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup MLB runs model (spread, version 1)
Against the market over 2 periods tested: tied in 2.
2025 to 2026, development games, against the recalibrated sportsbook consensus · 4,744 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.671, market 0.671.
2026 season, against Kalshi's main line an hour before the start · 1,065 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.681, market 0.681.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $55!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUPPICKS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.
Passed on 39 games
- Rules not met24
- No fresh price9
- Outside its trading window6
Version 2 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take either side of the run line when our MLB runs model gives it 4 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 1
Take either side of the run line when our MLB runs model gives it 4 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.
Locked Sep 30, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.