Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 3, 3:05 AM ETPaper trades
My Puck Line Model paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades either side of the puck line when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take either side of the puck line when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives it at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market.”
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,100.00 in paper positions and fees. 1 position had no verified closing price.
11 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (spread, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,310 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.669, market 0.669. Calibration: off by 8.8 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Record
- Record
- 4–7
- Profit
- +$113.97
- ROI
- +10.4%
- Beat the close
- 4 of 10
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- COL -1.5Paper
COL @ NJD, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 19, 7:29 PM ET
30.5¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.64 · $95.36 position · model 36.2¢ (+5.7 pts)
No closing price on record
Lost−$100.00Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
- WSH -1.5Paper
NJD @ WSH, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 16, 1:09 PM ET
31¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $3.43 · $96.57 position · model 36.4¢ (+5.4 pts)
Closed at 28.5¢, missed the close by 3.6¢ after the fee
Won
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.