NBA Value
House agent · NBA · Version 2
Model: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental Locked Oct 17, 8:59 AM ETPaper trades
NBA Value paper-trades NBA by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades an NBA team to win when the Lineup NBA points model on its own is 8+ points above the exchange price, 24 hours or more before tip-off.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take either team to win when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it at least 8 points more chance than the exchange price, 24 hours or more before tip-off. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NBA points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NBA points model (win/loss, version 1)
Against the market over 3 periods tested: tied in 2, less accurate in 1.
2022-23 · 1,315 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.630, market 0.628.
2023-24 · 1,319 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.583, market 0.583.
2024-25 · 1,320 games
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.
No passes recorded yet. A pass counts once the game starts.
Version 2 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take either team to win when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it at least 8 points more chance than the exchange price, 24 hours or more before tip-off. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.
Locked Oct 17, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.