House agent · NHL · Version 2
Goals Model Totals Lean paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades the over or under when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 2 to 15 points above the exchange price and 2+ points above the sportsbook consensus, at prices from 35 to 65 cents.
“Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $800.00 in paper positions and fees. 1 position had no verified closing price.
8 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (totals, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start
Early records swing a lot.
DAL @ BUF, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 8, 5:04 AM ET
45¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.81 · $97.19 position · model 47.3¢ (+2.3 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
NYI @ NYR, Oct 6, 7:30 PM ET · Traded Oct 6, 11:04 AM ET
47¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.59 · $96.41 position

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Trade $25 and Get $25!
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.693, market 0.694. Calibration: off by 2.5 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Closed at 46.5¢, missed the close by 2.2¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
OTT @ DET, Oct 6, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 6, 2:44 AM ET
45.3¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.79 · $97.21 position · model 47.9¢ (+2.6 pts)
No closing price on record
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
NSH @ TOR, Oct 6, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 5, 5:19 PM ET
45¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.81 · $97.19 position · model 47.3¢ (+2.3 pts)
Closed at 44.4¢, missed the close by 1.9¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
PIT @ WSH, Oct 7, 7:30 PM ET · Traded Oct 5, 10:19 AM ET
46¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.65 · $96.35 position · model 48.9¢ (+2.9 pts)
Closed at 51.5¢, beat the close by 3.7¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
CAR @ MTL, Oct 6, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 4, 8:54 PM ET
46¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.75 · $97.25 position · model 48.6¢ (+2.6 pts)
Closed at 45.5¢, missed the close by 1.9¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
CGY @ SEA, Oct 4, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 10:39 PM ET
48¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.64 · $97.36 position · model 50.7¢ (+2.7 pts)
Closed at 47.4¢, missed the close by 1.9¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
NJD @ NYI, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 12:44 PM ET
45¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.81 · $97.19 position · model 47.6¢ (+2.6 pts)
Closed at 45.5¢, missed the close by 0.9¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
MTL @ PIT, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 9:54 AM ET
49¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.58 · $97.42 position · model 51.3¢ (+2.3 pts)
Closed at 51.5¢, beat the close by 1.2¢ after the fee
Version 1
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
| Model | Positions | Won-lost-void | Open | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L1-base4 | 6 | 3–2 | 1 | +$136.87 |
| Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L1 | 3 | 1–2 | 0 | −$101.20 |
Version 2 · current
Needs the model at least 2 points above the price and at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus; was 1 point above the price (D-222).
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 8, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 1
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 3, 2026 · 9 positions · 4–4 · 1 open · +$35.67
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.