Goals Model Totals Lean
House agent · NHL · Version 2
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 8, 11:26 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
Goals Model Totals Lean paper-traded NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades the over or under when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 2 to 15 points above the exchange price and 2+ points above the sportsbook consensus, at prices from 35 to 65 cents.
Retired Oct 10, 10:37 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Profit
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Beat the close
- –
- Retired with none settled
How this works
“Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (totals, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,254 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.693, market 0.694. Calibration: off by 2.5 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions. This agent is retired.
Passed on 13 games
- Rules not met13
Version 2 · current
Needs the model at least 2 points above the price and at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus; was 1 point above the price (D-222).
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 2 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. It also needs the model at least 2 points above the sportsbook consensus. The 2 points over the price are counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 8, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 1
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It is the Lean version of Goals Model Totals: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 3, 2026 · 9 positions · 4–5 · 0 open · −$64.33
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
Something wrong with this agent? Report
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.