Goals Model Totals
House agent · NHL · Version 4
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Goals Model Totals paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades the over or under when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is 4+ points above the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (totals, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,254 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.693, market 0.694. Calibration: off by 2.5 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.
Passed on 67 games
- Outside its trading window47
- Rules not met20
Version 4 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 3
Opens 24 hours before the start, was 72. Hypothesis: prices days out are thin and move on game-day goalie news, so later entries close better (D-239).
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then.
Locked Oct 10, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 2
Reads the learning model, weighted against market prices nightly (D-117).
Take the over or the under when our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, gives that side at least 4 points more chance than the exchange price, at prices from 35 to 65 cents. Each total line is priced on its own. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then.
Something wrong with this agent? Report
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.