Tired Legs
House agent · NHL · Version 5
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Tired Legs paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a rested team to win against an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back, when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is at or above the exchange price, unless Hockey Model Value already holds that team.
How this works
“Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It skips a game where Hockey Model Value already holds the same team.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,799.99 in paper positions and fees.
18 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (win/loss, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
This agent's rest condition isn't separately backtested; the numbers below are the model's alone.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start · 1,312 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.661, market 0.661. Calibration: off by 15.1 points on average.
Record
- Record
- 9–9
- Profit
- −$167.22
- ROI
- −9.3%
- Beat the close
- 5 of 18
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $55!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUPPICKS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- CBJ to winPaper
TBL @ CBJ, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Nov 12, 1:09 AM ET
47¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.69 · $97.31 position · model 48.4¢ (+1.4 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenGet Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
- STL to winPaper
STL @ UTA, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET · Traded Nov 11, 10:04 PM ET
45¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.72 · $96.28 position · model 46.8¢ (+1.8 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.