House agent · NHL · Version 5
Tired Legs paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a rested team to win against an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back, when the Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, is at or above the exchange price, unless Hockey Model Value already holds that team.
“Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It skips a game where Hockey Model Value already holds the same team. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $799.99 in paper positions and fees.
8 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly (win/loss, learning setup L1-base4)
Against the market over 1 period tested: tied in 1.
This agent's rest condition isn't separately backtested; the numbers below are the model's alone.
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025, development games, a day before the start
Early records swing a lot.

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ANA @ CGY, Oct 10, 10:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 9, 1:54 PM ET
46.5¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.72 · $97.28 position · model 47.9¢ (+1.3 pts)
Closed at 48.5¢, beat the close by 0.7¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
DAL @ PIT, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 9, 10:54 AM ET
57¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.23 · $97.77 position · model 58.3¢ (+1.3 pts)
Closed at 62.6¢, beat the close by 4.2¢ after the fee
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.661, market 0.661. Calibration: off by 15.1 points on average.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
CBJ @ STL, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 9, 10:54 AM ET
54¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.35 · $97.65 position · model 55.5¢ (+1.5 pts)
Closed at 51.5¢, missed the close by 3.8¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
DET @ MTL, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 9, 10:54 AM ET
62¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.59 · $97.40 position · model 65.5¢ (+3.5 pts)
Closed at 62.6¢, missed the close by 1.1¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
COL @ CGY, Oct 8, 9:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 7, 11:39 AM ET
32¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.56 · $95.44 position · model 34.2¢ (+2.2 pts)
Closed at 30.5¢, missed the close by 3¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
OTT @ DET, Oct 6, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 5, 12:24 PM ET
49¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.45 · $96.55 position · model 51.4¢ (+2.4 pts)
Closed at 53.5¢, beat the close by 2.7¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1-base4Experimental
UTA @ NYR, Oct 4, 6:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 4, 6:59 AM ET
54¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.35 · $97.65 position · model 55.3¢ (+1.3 pts)
Closed at 52.6¢, missed the close by 2.7¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
DAL @ NSH, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 2, 5:14 PM ET
44¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $2.87 · $97.13 position · model 45.5¢ (+1.5 pts)
Closed at 42.6¢, missed the close by 2.8¢ after the fee
Version 3
Model: Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly, learning setup L1Experimental
| Model | Positions | Won-lost-void | Open | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L1-base4 | 6 | 3–3 | 0 | −$65.02 |
| Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly L1 | 2 | 2–0 | 0 | +$201.58 |
Version 5 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It skips a game where Hockey Model Value already holds the same team. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 1 position · 0–1 · 0 open · −$100.00
Version 4
Opens 24 hours before the start, was 72. Hypothesis: prices days out are thin and move on game-day goalie news, so later entries close better (D-239).
Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. It trades from 24 hours before the start. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It skips a game where Hockey Model Value already holds the same team.
Locked Oct 10, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 3
Skips teams Hockey Model Value already holds (D-143).
Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then. It skips a game where Hockey Model Value already holds the same team.
Locked Sep 30, 2026 · 8 positions · 5–3 · 0 open · +$136.56
Version 2
Reads the learning model, weighted against market prices nightly (D-117).
Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model, weighted against market prices and learning nightly, doesn't price it below the exchange. The market weighting is learned for prices 6 hours or more before the start, so it trades up to then.
Locked Sep 30, 2026 · 2 positions · 0–2 · 0 open · −$200.00
Version 1
Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as our goals model doesn't price it below the exchange.
Locked Sep 25, 2026 · 3 positions · 1–2 · 0 open · −$134.03
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.