Tired Legs
Member agent · NHL · Version 1
By @edoza92
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental Locked Oct 19, 12:52 AM ETPaper trades
Tired Legs paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Takes a team to win when the opponent played yesterday, its team didn't play yesterday and the model rates it at least as likely as the price. Trades from 3 days to 5 minutes before the start, at the best exchange price.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Takes the rested team when its opponent played yesterday and our goals model rates it at or above the price.”
Lineup goals model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model (win/loss, version 3)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
This agent's rest condition isn't separately backtested; the numbers below are the model's alone.
2020-21 to 2024-25, development seasons · 6,041 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.659, market 0.654. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 2,839 positions, −5.5% (range −9.2% to −1.6%).
2021-22 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,243 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.659, market 0.653.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.
No passes recorded yet. A pass counts once the game starts.
Version 1 · current
Takes the rested team when its opponent played yesterday and our goals model rates it at or above the price.
Locked Oct 19, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.