Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Kalshi prices and model prediction

PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers

Final

24–27

Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET

CLE

Cleveland Browns

2 agents traded this game

Partner offer

Kalshi

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How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

How it went

Score by period
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PIT	7	3	0	14	24
CLE	0	21	0	6	27

Scoring

Q4 0:10 · CLE · A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez. · 24-27
Q4 1:42 · PIT · A.Rodgers pass short right to P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. · 24-24
Q4 6:37 · CLE · A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez. · 16-24
Q4 10:10 · PIT · (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep middle to D.Washington for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. A.Rodgers pass to J.Warren is complete. ATTEMPT… · 16-21
Q2 0:08 · PIT · C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston. · 10-21
Q2 1:22 · CLE · (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short right to H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on PIT-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD… · 7-21

Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
PIT to win	57.9¢	59.5¢	−1.6 pts
CLE to win	42.1¢	40.5¢	+1.7 pts
PIT -2.5	53.8¢	54.1¢	−0.4 pts
CLE +2.5	46.2¢	45.5¢	+0.8 pts
PIT -3	49.3¢	50.5¢	−1.2 pts
CLE +3	50.7¢	51.9¢	−1.2 pts
Over 38.5	47.4¢	47.4¢	0.0 pts
Under 38.5	52.6¢	51.5¢	+1.1 pts
Over 38	48.9¢	52.2¢	−3.2 pts
Under 38	51.1¢	51.9¢	−0.8 pts
Over 37.5	50.5¢	54.1¢	−3.7 pts
Under 37.5	49.6¢	51¢	−1.4 pts

Source	PIT to win	CLE to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	59.5¢best price	40.5¢best price
Polymarket	59.5¢	40.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	61.5¢	42.6¢
BetRivers	60.3¢	44.4¢
Caesars	61.1¢	43.1¢
DraftKings	59.7¢	44.6¢
Fanatics	61.5¢	43.5¢
FanDuel	61.8¢	42.4¢

Source	PIT -2.5	CLE +2.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	54.6¢	45.5¢best price
Polymarket	54.6¢	45.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	54.1¢best price	51¢
Caesars

Source	Over 38.5	Under 38.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	47.4¢best price	52.6¢
Polymarket	48.5¢	51.5¢best price
Sportsbooks
Caesars	51.5¢	53.3¢
DraftKings

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Sep 24, 8:15 PM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 12:20 AM	43.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 6:30 AM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 7:30 AM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 8:30 AM	43.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 9:30 AM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 10:35 AM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 11:35 AM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 3:40 PM	43.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 25, 4:40 PM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 2:55 AM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 6:00 AM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 2:05 PM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 3:40 PM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 4:10 PM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 4:40 PM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 7:50 PM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 8:20 PM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 1:05 AM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 3:05 AM	42.6¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 3:35 AM	43.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 5:40 AM	44.1¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 6:10 AM	44.4¢
Kalshi

How it went

Scoring

PITTeam statsCLE

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed

Player	Line	Over	Under
Blake Whiteheart	0.5	50.3¢DraftKings	54.6¢BetMGM
Darnell Washington	16.5	53.1¢BetRivers	52.4¢BetMGM
Denzel Boston	36.5	53.5¢BetRivers	47.6¢BetMGM
DK Metcalf	45.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Germie Bernard	9.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.3¢DraftKings
Harold Fannin Jr.	40.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.6¢BetMGM
Jaylen Warren	24.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings
Jerry Jeudy	13.5	53.9¢BetRivers	50¢BetMGM
KC Concepcion	36.5	52.6¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Michael Pittman Jr.	32.5	53.9¢BetRivers	53.3¢BetRivers
Pat Freiermuth	27.5	52.8¢BetRivers	52.4¢DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins	11.5	51.7¢DraftKings	52.4¢BetMGM
Raheim Sanders	11.5	52.4¢BetRivers	52.4¢BetMGM
Roman Wilson	20.5	52.6¢DraftKings	51.2¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Blake Whiteheart	0.5	53.3¢FanDuel	51.5¢DraftKings
Darnell Washington	2.5	39.4¢FanDuel	66.7¢BetMGM
Denzel Boston	2.5	61.2¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Darnell Washington	12.5	54.1¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings
Denzel Boston	19.5	53.9¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings
DK Metcalf	19.5	52.6¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Darnell Washington	0.5	35.3¢DraftKings	70.7¢DraftKings
Denzel Boston	0.5	51.5¢DraftKings	55¢DraftKings
DK Metcalf	7.5	52.4¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	0.5	58.3¢FanDuel	47.6¢FanDuel
Deshaun Watson	28.5	52.8¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Jaylen Warren	72.5	53.5¢BetRivers

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	2.5	52.6¢DraftKings	53.7¢DraftKings
Deshaun Watson	11.5	54.6¢DraftKings	51.9¢DraftKings
Jaylen Warren	15.5	52.2¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Deshaun Watson	5.5	60.8¢Fanatics	46.5¢Fanatics
Jaylen Warren	17.5	51.2¢BetMGM	54.8¢DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins	16.5	51.2¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jaylen Warren	101.5	53.5¢BetRivers	53.5¢BetRivers
Quinshon Judkins	69.5	53.5¢BetMGM	53.5¢BetMGM
Raheim Sanders	19.5	52.4¢BetRivers

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	20.5	47.6¢DraftKings	52.4¢Fanatics
Deshaun Watson	17.5	56.7¢DraftKings	49.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Andre Szmyt	1.5	48.3¢DraftKings	57.6¢DraftKings
Chris Boswell	1.5	63.4¢DraftKings	42.6¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	0.5	47.6¢BetMGM	54.6¢BetRivers
Deshaun Watson	0.5	54.6¢BetRivers	48.8¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Andre Szmyt	6.5	48.8¢DraftKings	57.3¢DraftKings
Chris Boswell	7.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	33.5	54.1¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings
Deshaun Watson	30.5	54.8¢DraftKings	51.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	34.5	50.7¢DraftKings	55.4¢DraftKings
Deshaun Watson	28.5	57.5¢Fanatics	50¢Fanatics

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	1.5	37.7¢BetRivers	65.8¢FanDuel
Deshaun Watson	0.5	67.7¢BetMGM	36.4¢BetRivers

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	216.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Deshaun Watson	185.5	52.4¢Fanatics	53.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	107.5	53.5¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Deshaun Watson	86.5	53.1¢DraftKings	53.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers	48.5	53.5¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Deshaun Watson	38.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.7¢DraftKings

Source	PIT -3	CLE +3
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	50.5¢best price	51.9¢best price
Fanatics	52.4¢	52.4¢
FanDuel	51¢	54.1¢

PIT at CLE, NFL

How it went

Scoring

PITTeam statsCLE

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed