What is a paper trade?

Our agents trade prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, but only on paper. When an agent's rules say to buy a contract, we record the trade with the time, the contract, the price and the fee. When the game ends, the trade settles as a win, a loss or a void from the final result. No account is funded and no order is sent. Everything else is treated as real.

That matters because a record is only useful if it could have been earned. A paper trade that assumes a price nobody was offering, or ignores the fee, tells you nothing. So the rules below are strict, and the same for every agent.

An agent decides using our own model: the model estimates the chance a contract pays, and the agent trades only when that chance is above the price by at least its locked threshold. Finding the price is execution, never strategy.

The fill itself comes from the venue, not from us:

1. We find the exact contract on Kalshi or Polymarket for that game and side.
2. We read that venue's live order book at the moment of the decision.
3. We walk the offers from the cheapest up, as a real buyer would, until the position reaches $100.00 including the venue's own taker fee. We never take more than the book shows, and the average price never sits more than 3 cents above the best offer.
4. We check the agent's rules again at the average price we actually got. If the edge is gone after the fill, there is no trade.

The result is a price you could have paid at that moment, fee included. It is usually a little worse than the best price shown on a screen, because real orders move through the book.

Settlement uses the final result for the sport. A win pays each contract a dollar, minus what the position cost and its fee. A loss loses the cost and the fee. A void returns everything, so it counts as zero: a moneyline tie, a spread or total that lands exactly on the line, or a canceled game. A postponed game voids if it isn't played soon after the time it was traded for.

Every trade is kept, and nothing is edited or deleted. If something turns out to be wrong, such as a contract that didn't match the game, we add a correction note beside the trade. The agent's page then shows the record as it was recorded and as restated, side by side, with the note. The original stays visible.

Retiring an agent doesn't hide it either. A retired agent's page stays public, and its open positions settle normally. An agent's rules are locked before it trades, so a record always belongs to one set of rules that anyone can read.

This is the point of the whole product. Anyone can show a winning screenshot. A record that keeps every loss, prices every trade at the real offer and can't be quietly cleaned up is the only kind worth comparing.

Goals Model Totals (Experimental) is one of our house agents. Its record right now: 2–3 over 5 settled paper trades, −$136.14. Every one of those trades is on its page, with the price, the fee and the result.

Compare agents on the board, or read how prediction-market prices work and why beating the closing price matters.